Marvel Comics announced that they will be rolling out a brand new Captain Marvel comic book for the zillionth time. Captain Marvel #1 will debut on October 25, 2023. The new creative team will include Alyssa Wong as the writer and Jan Bazaldua as the penciler. Since I love tracking comic sales and rankings, I also like to have fun trying to predict what type of success a new title may or may not have. I am usually pretty good at guessing how well a new title will perform so let’s try and keep my hot streak going!
I know that a new Captain Marvel comic book is not going to get many readers excited. This is a trick that Marvel Comics has played to death. But, the fact is that rebooting a title with a new #1 issue always leads to a sales bump. Also, despite how Carol Danvers is not that popular of a character she is always going to get a Captain Marvel comic book. Marvel Comics does not really care about the sales numbers. Instead, Marvel Comics is more concerned with making sure that DC Comics never gets a chance to get the trademark back to Captain Marvel. Sorry, Billy Batson! Get used to being called silly codenames like Shazam and The Captain!
Here is what Marvel Comics says about this new Captain Marvel title:
“HIGHEST, FURTHEST, FASTEST! The Captain gets a permanent glow-up designed by superstar artist Jen Bartel! And that’s not all that’s changed. Brand-new look – brand-new creative team – and a brand-new status quo. Carol Danvers is one of the powerhouses of the Marvel Universe, a woman capable of harnessing the energy of the sun. So if you’re coming for Earth? She’s the first one you take off the board. Someone’s figured just how to do just that. Introducing a new supporting cast and villains both beloved and dangerously fresh, Alyssa Wong and Jan Bazaldua’s exhilarating series kicks off here!”
Rokk’s Excitement Level: 1 Night Girl out of 10. The best thing about this new Captain Marvel comic book is Jan Bazaldua. Bazaldua is a talented artist who is definitely going to deliver a professional-looking superhero comic book. I have no doubt that we will get treated to consistently good-looking artwork with each and every issue.
My reservations with Captain Marvel lie with Carol Danvers who has been a one-dimensional dud in the role of Captain Marvel since the very beginning. I am also concerned with the fact that Wong is the writer. At no point have I found Wong to be anything close to a professional mainstream superhero comic book writer.
Rokk’s Prediction: In order to try and predict the success of this new Captain Marvel title we must first take a look at Carol Danvers’ sales history as Captain Marvel.
Captain Marvel Vol. 7 was published from July 2012 to November 2013 for seventeen issues. Captain Marvel Vol. 7 #1 debuted at the number 42 spot and sold 41,582 units. Captain Marvel #2 plummeted to the number 84 spot and sold 28,434 units.
Captain Marvel Vol. 7 #2-17 averaged the number 107 spot in the sales rankings and sold an average of 21,965 units per issue. Captain Marvel Vol. 7 #17 concluded the title’s run with the number 120 spot in the sales rankings and sold 18,173 units.
Captain Marvel Vol. 8 was published from March 2014 to May 2015 for a total of fifteen issues. Captain Marvel Vol. 8 #1 debuted at the number 32 spot and sold 44,248 units. Then the Carol crater hit and Captain Marvel #2 came in at the number 79 spot in the sales rankings and sold 28,008 units.
Captain Marvel Vol. 8 #2-15 averaged the number 112 spot in the sales rankings and sold an average of 22,538 units per issue. Captain Marvel Vol. 8 #15 concluded the title’s run with the number 124 spot in the sales rankings and sold 19,740 units.
Captain Marvel and the Carol Corps was a four-issue mini-series that was published from June 2015 through September 2015. Captain Marvel and the Carol Corps debuted at the number 44 spot and sold 47,302 units. Sales cratered after the debut issue. Captain Marvel and the Carol Corps #2-4 averaged the number 92 spot in the sales rankings and sold an average of 25,047 units. Captain Marvel and the Carol Corps #4 concluded the title’s run with the number 100 spot in the sales rankings and sold 22,106 units.
Captain Marvel Vol. 9 was published from January 2016 to November 2016 for a total of ten issues. Captain Marvel Vol. 9 #1 debuted at the number 22 spot and sold 52,972 units. Then the customary Carol crater happened as Captain Marvel Vol. 9 #2 took the number 64 spot and sold 28,962 units.
Captain Marvel Vol. 9 #2-10 averaged the number 90 spot in the sales rankings and sold an average of 25,131 units per issue. Captain Marvel Vol. 9 #10 concluded the title’s run with the number 132 spot in the sales rankings and sold 19,893 units.
Mighty Captain Marvel was published from December 2016 to September 2017 for a total of ten issues. Mighty Captain Marvel #0 took the number 34 spot and sold 53,263 units. Mighty Captain Marvel #1 debuted at the number 32 spot and sold 48,519 units. Then the Carol crater happened as Mighty Captain Marvel #3 came in at the number 92 spot in the sales rankings and sold 24,172 units.
Mighty Captain Marvel #2-9 averaged the number 121 spot in the sales rankings and sold an average of 19,426 units per issue. Mighty Captain Marvel #9 concluded the title’s run with the number 144 spot in the sales rankings and sold 13,724 units.
It was then renamed Captain Marvel Vol. 7 with issue #125 based on the legacy numbering accounted from Ms. Marvel, Ms. Marvel Vol. 2, Captain Marvel Vol. 7, Captain Marvel Vol. 8, Captain Marvel Vol. 9, and Mighty Captain Marvel.
Captain Marvel Vol. 7 was published from October 2017 to February 2018 for five issues. Captain Marvel #125 took the number 48 spot and sold 41,451 units. Then that old Carol crater hit and Captain Marvel Vol. 7 #126 took the number 138 spot in the sales rankings and sold 15,037 units.
Captain Marvel Vol. 7 #126-129 averaged the number 144 spot in the sales rankings and sold an average of 12,992 units per issue. Captain Marvel Vol. 7 #129 concluded the title’s run with the number 155 spot in the sales rankings and sold 11,499 units.
The Life of Captain Marvel Vol. 2 was published from July 2018 to December 2018 and ran for five issues. The Life of Captain Marvel Vol. 2 #1 debuted at the number 14 spot in the sales rankings and sold 74,298. Then that reliable Carol crater kicked in as The Life of Captain Marvel Vol. 2 #2 came in at the number 57 spot in the sales rankings and sold 33,101 units.
The Life of Captain Marvel Vol. 2 #2-5 averaged the number 72 spot in the sales rankings and sold an average of 29,161 units per issue. The Life of Captain Marvel Vol. 2 #5 concluded the title at the number 66 spot and sold 27,079 units.
This snapped a consistent pattern in Carol’s titles. Before The Life of Captain Marvel, Captain Marvel Vol. 7, Vol. 8, Vol. 9, and Mighty Captain Marvel all concluded outside of the Top 100 and sold under the 20,000 unit mark.
Captain Marvel Vol. 10 was published from January 2019 to July 2023 and lasted for fifty issues. Captain Marvel #1 debuted at the number 2 spot and then it was all downhill from there. The second issue fell to the number 39 spot. Captain Marvel #2-50 averaged the number 77 spot in the sales rankings with Captain Marvel #50 concluding the title’s run by taking the number 72 spot in the sales rankings.
Captain Marvel Dark Tempest #1 debuted in July 2023 and took the number 38 spot. However, once again, we see that Carol crater again as Captain Marvel Dark Tempest #2 plummeted all the way down to the number 117 spot. Captain Marvel Dark Tempest #3 then dropped even further down to the number 139 spot.
Captain Marvel Vol. 10 finished higher in the sales rankings than any of the prior Captain Marvel titles. So, the question is if Captain Marvel Vol. 10 is the statistical outlier compared to all of the other Captain Marvel titles or if this is a sign of a modest improvement in Captain Marvel’s ability to sell units.
I would be tempted to entertain that Captain Marvel Vol. 11 might continue this new trend set by Captain Marvel Vol. 10. However, the fact that Alyssa Wong has been tapped to be the writer of the new Captain Marvel title dampens any bullishness that I might have for its sales success.
Wong is a writer who has never had any mainstream sales success. I am unsure why Marvel Comics continues to saddle their lead female titles with such low-level writers. At any rate, let’s take a look at Wong’s sales history.
Wong’s first comic for Marvel Comics was Aero which was a twelve-issue limited series that came out in 2019. Aero #1 debuted at the number 14 spot and sold 71,704 units. The title then crashed and burned as Aero #2-12 averaged the number 199 spot in the sales ranking and sold an average of 5,611 units per issue.
Wong also wrote an Iron Fist five-issue mini-series which came out in February 2022. Iron Fist #1 debuted at the number 23 spot. Iron Fist then cratered in spectacular fashion as Iron Fist #2-4 averaged a number 116 spot in the sales rankings. Iron Fist #5 concluded the mini-series unranked and outside of the Top 200.
Wong is currently writing Star Wars Doctor Aphra. I cannot find good sales numbers for Doctor Aphra #1-9 due to the pandemic and DC Comics switching distributors during that time period. We do know that Star Wars Doctor Aphra #10-#36 has averaged the number 101 spot in the sales rankings.
Marvel paired Wong with a popular big-name character in Deadpool. The results have been disappointing. Deadpool #1 debuted in November 2022 at the number 6 spot. Deadpool #2 dropped to the number 24 spot. Deadpool #2-10 have averaged the number 71 spot with Deadpool #9 taking the number 116 spot and Deadpool #10 taking the number 99 spot in the rankings.
The way I look at it is that Deadpool is a more popular character than Carol Danvers and if Wong cannot have sales success with Deadpool then I do not know why I should be bullish on Wong having much success with Carol.
Conclusion: Glass half-full people will point to Captain Marvel Vol. 10 bucking the trend of the prior six titles and say that the arrow is modestly pointing up for Carol going into Captain Marvel Vol. 11. However, glass half-empty people will say that Captain Marvel Vol. 10 has to be more of an anomaly given the context of the entire sales history. Personally, I do believe that characters can break free of past sales failures. Look at the current Moon Knight title for clear proof of that.
But, in the end, it is Wong as the writer that makes me look at the upcoming Captain Marvel comic as another sales failure. If Marvel Comics were serious about trying to build on the slight increase in sales from Captain Marvel Vol. 10 then they would have placed a real mainstream superhero writer on this new Captain Marvel title.
We also cannot forget that Captain Marvel #1 will be powered by a whopping nine variant covers including a foil cover. It’s the 1990s all over again!
My prediction is that Captain Marvel Vol. 11 starts out of the gate white hot. I think that Captain Marvel #1 will score a Top 10 debut. Some readers just cannot resist an issue with a #1 on its cover. And we all know that speculators always drive up the sales of any #1 issue of a new title. And we all know that numerous variant covers help to drive orders from local comic shops
However, after a big debut number, I think that Captain Marvel Vol. 11 will fall out of the Top 50 by Captain Marvel #5. I think we will then see Captain Marvel Vol. 11 fall out of the Top 75 by Captain Marvel #10. After that point, I think it will be a serious struggle for Captain Marvel to remain in the Top 100 on a monthly basis.
At any rate, Wong’s Captain Marvel is going to be a hard pass for me. We shall see how the consumer reacts once this title debuts on October 25, 2023.
