The box office has largely crashed and burned at historic levels through September 2022. However, as we head to Thanksgiving we are now set to get several big superhero blockbuster movies. Maybe Black Adam and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever can rescue the box office for the remainder of 2022. As always, we turn to the incredible The Numbers for the latest in box office projections.
As expected, Black Adam dominated the box office on the way to grabbing the number one spot. The latest projections have Black Adam earning $67 million at the domestic box office and an additional $73 million at the international box office for a total of $140 million.
That is a good opening weekend, however, Warner Bros desperately needs Black Adam to be a good money maker for the beleaguered studio. Keep in mind that the money from the box office is split 50/50 between theater owners and studios in the domestic box office. We will go ahead and use that 50/50 split for the international box office even though theaters in foreign countries keep a higher cut of the ticket sales money. I know that will make things more generous to Warners Bros, but it makes the math much simpler, too.
Black Adam had a production budget of $200 million. We will add in a typical marketing budget of half the production budget of the movie. This means that Black Adam needs to generate $600 million in the worldwide box office in order to break even.
So, while $140 million is a nice opening weekend when looked at in a vacuum, it still shows that Black Adam still has a long way to go to break even. The Rock’s superhero flick is going to have to have some strong legs to make it past the break-even point. The international box office is also going to have to be strong for Black Adam, too.
Ticket to Paradise debuted at the number 2 spot with $16.3 million at the domestic box office and $82.3 million at the international box office for a total of $98.7 million. That is a damn good showing for this George Clooney and Julia Roberts romantic flick. This was some good counter-programming by Universal to go up against Black Adam. That international box office number is just nuts.
Ticket to Paradise had a $60 million budget. Throw another $30 million on that for marketing and Ticket to Paradise needs to hit $180 million to break even. Considering that this movie is already nipping at $100 million after its debut weekend, it is looking pretty good that Universal will turn a profit on this movie.
Smile took third place with $8.3 million in its fourth weekend at the box office. This brings Smile’s worldwide box office up to $166 million. Smile had a paltry $17 million production budget. Add in another $8 million for marketing and you get a total of $25 million needed to break even. This puts Smile at making a profit of $116 million. That is pretty damn good and certainly is making Paramount Pictures happy.
Halloween Ends took fourth place with $8 million in its second week at the box office. This brings Halloween Ends’ worldwide box office to $82 million. Halloween Ends had a $20 million production budget. Add in another $10 million for marketing. This gives Halloween Ends a break-even number of $60 million. So, with its second weekend at the box office, Halloween Ends has now earned $22 million in profit for Universal. Not bad for the 63-year-old Jamie Lee Curtis!
Lyle, Lyle Crocodile grabbed fifth place with $4.2 million in its third week at the box office. This brings Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile’s worldwide box office to $36 million. This movie had a $50 million production budget. Add to that another $25 million for advertising and this crocodile flick needs to make $150 million to break even. Those aren’t crocodile tears that Sony Pictures is shedding. This movie would need to make another $114 million just to break even. That is not happening. Lyle, Lyle Crocodile looks to be a big money loser for Sony.
The Woman King managed sixth place with $1.9 million in its sixth week at the box office. This brings The Woman King’s worldwide box office to a paltry $82 million. The Woman King had a $50 million budget. Add on that another $25 million for marketing. This means that The Woman King needs to hit $150 million at the worldwide box office in order to break even.
This movie is already in its sixth week so there is absolutely zero chance that The Woman King even comes remotely close to $150 million. At this point, The Woman King is a whopping $68 million in the red. Poor Sony Pictures comes up as a big loser once again with this bomb of a movie.
Don’t Worry, Darling came in at eighth place with $880,000 in its fifth week at the box office. This brings Don’t Worry, Darling’s worldwide box office to just $82 million. Luckily, this movie only had a $35 million production budget. Add on that another 17.5 million for marketing. This makes $105 million the break-even point for this movie.
Since Don’t Worry, Darling could not even make $1 million at the domestic box office in its fifth week it is safe to say that there is no way that Don’t Worry, Darling comes anywhere close to its break-even point. Warner Bros. is going to take a loss with this dud of a movie. This certainly will not make Zaslav happy.
Amsterdam came in ninth place in its third week at the box office with $818,000. This brings Amsterdam’s worldwide box office to a pathetic $21.8 million. Amsterdam had a production budget of $80 million. Throw another $40 million on top of that for marketing and that brings the break-even point to $240 million! Obviously, there is zero chance of Amsterdam even coming close to that break-even point. What a monstrous box office bomb Amsterdam is for 20th Century Studios.
Hollywood has had a rough September as they rolled out three movies that just completely failed to connect with the viewing public. This is why Hollywood desperately needed Black Adam to generate some positive headlines with its debut over the weekend.
Black Adam gets to enjoy two more weekends before Black Panther: Wakanda Forever debuts and sucks up all of the oxygen in the box office. I am curious to see what type of legs Black Adam has given that critics seem to dislike the movie while audiences seem to enjoy it. On Rotten Tomatoes (which is not that reliable) the critics’ score is 39% while the audience’s score is at 90%. That is a massive difference. It will be interesting to see if positive word of mouth from viewers can power Black Adam to success over the next few weeks.
All right, that is it for this week! It looks like the box office is heating up again as the superhero movies come to the rescue. Until next week, be good and stay safe!