Black Panther Wakanda Forever

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Falls Short of Original But Still Gets Easy Box Office Win

Disney rolled out their latest Marvel Studios movie with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. This MCU movie should help the box office finish 2022 on a stronger note than September through October. As always, we turn to the incredible The Numbers for the latest in box office projections.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever had no competition at all as it dominated the box office with an easy number-one finish with an estimated $180 million domestic box office and an estimated $150 million international box office. This brought Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s estimated worldwide box office to $330 million.

Like all MCU movies, the bar for turning a profit is fairly high. The production budget was $250 million. Disney normally has a marketing budget of half of the production budget or at least around $100 million. So, that sets the total money Disney has invested in this movie at $350 million. Disney gets 50% of the domestic box office. Disney gets 40% from the international box office. For those who argue that the marketing budget isn’t as high as the customary $100 million, I will use the 50/50 split for both domestic and international box office in our calculation. Therefore, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever needs to hit $700 million to make a profit.

Let’s compare Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to the other MCU movies from 2020. Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness absolutely blew away Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. It was not even close. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness hauled in an insane $450 million at the worldwide box office in its opening weekend. That absolutely destroys Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s $330 million worldwide box office opening weekend.

Thor: Love and Thunder brought in $302 million at the worldwide box office on its opening weekend. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was able to beat that by $28 million. This should give us an idea of what kind of legs Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will have. Thor: Love and Thunder ended up with a worldwide box office of $745 million. If Black Panther: Wakanda Forever can end up performing as well as Thor: Love and Thunder then it should earn Disney a profit. It won’t be a big profit, but it will still be a profit.

How did Black Panther: Wakanda Forever perform compared to Black Panther? Black Panther raked in a monstrous $404 million at the worldwide box office. Even unadjusted, that number dwarfs Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s $330 million debut. If you adjust for inflation, Black Panther’s worldwide box office is $479 million in 2022 dollars. That makes the gap even more pronounced. Obviously, there is zero chance that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will come even remotely close to Black Panther at the box office. I am not surprised given that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is lacking…Black Panther.

At this point, it looks like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever should end up either tying or surpassing Thor: Love and Thunder. However, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is definitely going to fall well short of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Black Panther.

The next few weeks will give Black Panther: Wakanda Forever practically no opposition. The next big movie is another one from Disney in Avatar: The Way of Water set to debut on December 16, 2022. A full month with zero competition should help the newest MCU movie.

Black Adam brought in another $8.6 million at the domestic box office in its fourth week. This brings Black Adam’s worldwide box office to $352 million. We already did the math, but Black Adam needs to hit $600 million at the worldwide box office in order to break even. Things look grim for Warner Bros. Discovery as they continue to struggle to make money. As a long-time DC Comics fan, it is tough seeing yet another DC movie fail at the box office.

Ticket to Paradise took third place with $6.1 million at the domestic box office in its fourth week. This brings Ticket to Paradise’s worldwide box office to $152 million. This movie needed to make $180 million to break even. Universal is hoping this movie can let it out to that number. 

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile took fourth place with $3.2 million at the domestic box office in its sixth week. This brought the worldwide box office up to $72 million. This movie needed to make $150 million in order to break even. Sony Pictures is going to take a big loss on this flick.

Smile rounds out the Top 5 with $2.3 million at the domestic box office in its seventh week. This puts the worldwide box office at $209 million. Smile needed just $116 million to break even. Paramount Pictures has a big smile on its face as they count the excellent profits from this horror flick.

Prey for the Devil took sixth place with $2 million at the domestic box office in its third week. This brings the worldwide box office to $21 million. I am unsure what the budget was for this movie, but it probably was not much at all. Hopefully, it was a cheap movie with no marketing because there is little margin here for Lionsgate to make much money.

The Banshees of Inisherin took seventh place with $1.7 million at the domestic box office in its fourth week. This brought the worldwide box office to $14 million. This movie had to be dirt cheap so making money on this movie should be an easy task. I finally got to see this movie over the weekend. This film was well done and one of the best movies I have seen this year.

One Piece File: Red took eighth place with $1.4 million at the domestic box office in its second week. This brings the worldwide box office up to $162 million. One Piece continues to be a successful cash machine. There is just no stopping this franchise in manga, anime, movies, and merchandise. It is just success all of the time.

All right, that is it for this week! Things are going to be relatively uneventful as no give blockbuster movies are getting released soon. Until next week, be good and stay safe!