The summer blockbuster season continues to heat up as blockbuster movies are weighing into the fray. Some are falling and others are hitting big highs. As always, we turn to the incredible The Numbers for the latest in box office projections.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie took first place by crushing all competitors as it hauled in $58 million at the domestic box office. In its third week, The Super Mario Bros. Movie now stands at a whopping $876,400 million at the worldwide box office. What is impressive is how balanced the box office performance has been for this movie. Super Mario has brought in $434 million at the domestic box office and $442 million at the international box office.
There is no doubt that The Super Mario Bros. Movie will absolutely fly past the $1 billion mark. This movie has not debuted in Japan (April 28, 2023) or South Korea (April 26, 2023). These two countries should provide another big push at the worldwide box office.
Can Super Mario beat the highest-performing Illumination film in Minions which had a $1.15 billion worldwide box office? Without a doubt. Look at the chart comparing the top Illumination movies at the domestic box office. Minions performed far better at the international box office than it did at the domestic box office. Super Mario certainly has the legs to top Minions.
Frozen II from 2019 still remains the champ with $1.4 billion at the worldwide box office. Yeah, I know that some people consider the Lion King remake from 2019 to be an animated film since it is all CGI. But, not in my book. Plus, Disney marketed the 2019 Lion King as a “live-action” remake.
So, let’s take a look at what The Super Mario Bros Movie would need to accomplish in order to dethrone Frozen II. At this point, Super Mario is far outperforming Frozen II at the domestic box office. There is no doubt that Super Mario will blow past Frozen II’s final domestic box office of $477 million.
The big question is if The Super Mario Bros Movie can make a serious run at Frozen II’s massive international box office number which stands at $960 million. Right now, Super Mario’s international box office is far off the pace at $442 million. Now, yes, I would expect Japan and South Korea to boost this number in the next week. However, it is going to take some real legs by Super Mario to top Frozen II at the international box office.
There is a good chance that Super Mario can make up the difference by far outperforming Frozen II at the domestic box office. The next couple of weeks is going to be pivotal for Super Mario in its race to top Frozen II.
Evil Dead Rise came in second place as it debuted at the box office and brought in $23.5 million at the domestic box office. The worldwide box office came in at $40.3 million. The production budget was $15 million. Throw in an estimated marketing budget of $30 million. That means Evil Dead Rise needs to make roughly $90 million in order to start making a profit. That should be an attainable goal for this movie given its opening weekend.
Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant came in a disappointing third place as it debuted at the box office and brought in just $6.28 million at the domestic box office. This movie has not had its international release at this moment. The budget for this movie is $55 million. Throw another $50 million for the marketing budget. That means this movie would need roughly $210 million in order to break even. Things are not looking great for this movie.
John Wick: Chapter 4 came in fourth place and brought in another $5.7 million in its fifth week at the domestic box office. This now pushes the worldwide box office to $358 million. We have already done the rough math and this movie needs to hit around the $500 million mark to get into the black. It does not look like that will happen as this movie has underperformed compared to the box office predictions.
Air took fifth place and brought in an additional $5.5 million at the domestic box office. This pushes the worldwide box office up to $62.7 million. We already did the rough math on this movie and Amazon Studios needs this movie to make roughly $330 million at the worldwide box office in order to break even. Amazon is no stranger to running a loss when entering a new market. So, Amazon is in familiar territory.
Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves stayed at sixth place with just $5.4 million at the domestic box office. This brings the worldwide box office to just $177 million. What a disappointment this has been for Paramount Pictures. We did the rough math for this movie and it needs to make around $600 in order to break even. Clearly, Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves has been a massive box office bomb. I think many of us saw this coming from a mile away.
The other new movie debuting was Searchlight Picture’s newest film, Chevalier. Chevalier came in tied for eleventh with just $1.5 million at the domestic box office. This movie has only been released in Brazil and Germany and there are no numbers from those markets at this point. There have been no other international releases for this film. Hopefully, Chevalier had a cheap production budget and a small marketing budget, because it looks like this movie is dead on arrival at the box office.
All right, that is it for this week! We will be back next week to see how well Super Mario Bros. has performed at the box office!
